So, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has begun.

Will this lead to an all out world war between Russia and The West, or will Russia be allowed to occupy Ukraine, or otherwise make it into a vassal state to Russia, without a wider conflict?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60454795

Another day, another world event to add to the list of things I didn't sign up for

It's... scary.

I don't think this will lead to nuclear war, however I fully expect it to be the spark that ignites other world conflicts between other nations that are possibly less regimented. I'd like to think no one is stupid enough to push the button, not necessarily for lack of the person in charge wanting to but stopped by some military figure sitting in the back of the room who has experience and a level head.

I do think this will lead to major disruptions in power, water, food, aid etc. for large swathes of the world.

Or everyone ignores it because that's what we seem to do best.

Either way, I'm... I'm in my happy place.

I think there will more likely be a 'conventional' ground-based war, or at least drone strikes and / or similar.

Either way, its the people on the ground who will suffer most, as always...

Mutually Assured Destruction only works if the leaders on both sides are willing to risk their country being annihilated by nuclear devices.

Does Putin care? by looking at his statements over the last few months, I think he cares less about that than Johnson cares about honesty and integrity.

Should also add, based on the threats, I can't see anyone actually sending troops in to defend Ukraine, because they know if they do, the chances are it will lead to them being on the front line next - especially Ukranian neighbours. (Belarus have already said they will happily send troops against Ukraine)

There are plenty of non- nuclear devices that can do the same thing. Sure you have to fire more of them but you get the same level of destruction and no radiation as a bonus.

I think Lukashenka of Belarus is equally culpable in this, I think he has been encouraging Putin. See how that country dealt with their internal protests in 2020.

Non-voting on the options as I think their escalation is likely to be cyber rather than nuclear. Which means it's all still pretty fucked. It's horrible.

I remember sitting in my bedroom when the war with Iraq was announced - I was about 10 - and being distraught. We'd only just done WW2 at school and I thought gas masks were on the way back. Of course that conflict turned out rather differently.

Waking up this morning to the invasion news, I was right back there again. Very scared, numb, and now even more cynical with another 30 years on me. I hope the loss of life is minimal and somehow, something brings this to a swift conclusion. An assassination in Moscow would be pretty sweet.

No it won't go Nuclear.

Yes Putin might occupy Ukraine if he wants as NATO won't move in due to Ukraine not being in NATO. Whether he will depends on his game plan.

China is loving this as Went the sanctions bite, Europe will stop buying gas from Russia so they will sell it to the Chinese. Prices will go up in Europe so we will look for cheaper options to keep our economies going...this will also be China. Basically, this move makes Putin look strong to his supporters while aiding the Chinese economy and weakening everyone else.

Well done Putin, you won the Cold war by starting a mini hot one.

One aspect of this concerns Ukraine's albeit slow progress on gay rights: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Ukraine
All of that will of course now go out of the window.

I don't know.

I do think NATO have let Ukraine down badly though. Putin has purposefully kept them in low and not so low level conflict to stop them from joining. Surely they can see through his bullshit.

I'm disgusted by the whole thing. Surely we can't just let Ukraine die. Boris speech implies not - but we all know he's full of hot air.

I actually looked into joining the army today and found I'm too old unless I retrain in a medical field and join that way. Sadly that can't happen

In my opinion it will not be nuclear apocalypse for all world. But probably the countries from region of central and eastern europe are becoming a new "playground" for world empires. "Empires" I mean NATO / Russia and maybe China.

I'm really worry about it... Nobody want that scenario but everything looks bad for now.

I only hope that for people in Ukraine this hell will end fast.

I also attache a map that I found in the web. REMEMBER - the geopolitic is more complicated than this. But in small way it shows the situation:

https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/81vhux/map_of_the_worlds_alliances_today_3996x2028/

Wont go nuclear cos NATO essentially sold out Ukraine and we'll probs see some good old fashioned handwashing over the next few weeks (already the European states have disagreed how to sanction Russia fearing for their own parasite economies).

If the Minsk agreement was actually ever followed rather than NATO pressuring Ukraine to constantly shell the rebel republics via the fucking Azov Battalion then maybe an integration process could've taken place in spite of the war caused by Euromaiden. Instead we got this, Putin and his reactionaries becoming a tinpot fucking Tsarist.

I doubt the sanctions will work (not that they ever actually have) certainly not with how much laundered money is in London and elsewhere. Too many splits in NATO anyhow do actually do anything proper. Nothing but fucking decay all around

Putin's recent statements have been irrational as well as chilling.
Let us hope that he gives the free world a unity of purpose that will deter further conflict.
Our own wrongful invasion of Iraq taught some awful lessons about aggression, that superior weapons can quickly win a war, but what happens next?
Ukraine has been free for thirty odd years, and Putin may find that it's people are more of a difficulty to him if he tries to repress them again, than they were as a free nation.

Nobody can possibly know what he is going to do.

He has us by the short and curlies, and like his staff said, our sanctions mean nothing as we scurry back soon enough when we need the business.

Only thing for sure.... life is going to get much more expensive, and much more unstable.
Nato can talk big, but actually do little. We are like Dad's Army these days.

Nato have been asleep at the wheel and let him quietly get ready. What did we do over the Salisbury affair? Nothing

China will be watching this. If he succeeds (and frankly, I can't see any way that it won't), then China will begin to actively expand their territories by force.

World has gone to s*%t in the last few years

Rachel x

Was going to make a water mud piece from this still May

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nL0yawRPTSY


This resonates as well
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zcp25FBKLQE

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZmEAZCOYSE

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5nl1WK-uKxw

Mark passed away as well at 57
May we all be closer to are truth to help heal seek to find and thrive
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Wp1rL7DI_D4

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HCdP5s_ggkc

America has been invading nations and killing people under the guise of "protecting our freedom at home". No one in NATO or the UN has ever stopped us. Putin thinks it's his turn now. And it's a perfect opportunity to test out his military, see how the west will react, and how much China will back him up.

I also think this is bigger than flags and nations. People with power and money are just playing a large real life game of "Risk".

The sad thing is that real Ukrainian and Russian lives are being lost playing this game. Also, given the amount of psy-ops that have been happening the past 25 years or so, war is always a really good deflection to keep us peons occupied, while said people with money and power further their agenda with zero media scrutiny.

BTW, anyone know how Armenia is doing, have they been completely wiped out yet?

No. But the climate apocalypse is already displacing scores of people and is being fuelled by these fucking petrostate pieces of shit. So, not a nuclear holocaust, just a carbon one.

I hope not. Russia recognized their independence like 20 years ago. From talking with various people Russians do not want this, Europe doesn't want this, Ukraine sure as shit doesn't want this. Which leaves America. We are too fucking stupid to know what we want. We have politicians that want to stay in power and think kissing Trump's ass is the key to that. Since Trump is Putin's bitch they are in favor of it. Putin just needs to leave shit alone and jolly well fuck off.

The test will be whether the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian people resist. They didn't when Russia occupied Crimea. Hopefully they will this time and Putin will be deterred from further agression.

The Ukraine has already barred all males 18 to 60 from leaving the country. Forced military service is coming soon.

I couldn't agree more with both of you.

So, what can we do? Well, you can donate to the Ukrainian army here to fund logistical and medical support:

https://ukraine.ua/news/support-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine

We can also help our little community by buying clips from Ukrainian producers: -

https://mary-orchid-prod.umd.net/

Russia is literally a third world country, a violent country since it's inception by Vikings, and war does not phase them, their entire economy is smaller than the state of Texas... they have nothing to lose.

If you read The Foundations of Geopolitics, everything happening in the world today will be explained. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, Russia collapsed and went Dark Ages... we drove them into bankruptcy. The Russian mafia and ex KGB filled the void. These guys aren't going anywhere and violence is a staple of their DNA.

The Foundations of Geopolitics was written in 1989 after the collapse by a Russian general outlining how a broke country can destroy the West without war, and it is working. Through the use of exploiting the divisions inherent in democracies, ie, race, wealth, male/female, religion, diversity, abortion, guns, all the standards, their intent is to make Western democracies fall from within and it is working perfectly for them. The paper also outlines the taking of the Ukraine, their plan all along, in an effort to destabilize the EU and NATO from within. In fact, over 80% of the points outlined have come to fruition and the election of nationalist worldwide as speeding up our decline, also part of their plan.

So no, no nuclear war. He doesn't need it. We will destroy ourselves. The next world war will be a cyberwar and include taking out our satellites and using EMP's where we all destroy our enemies banking systems, infrastructure (water, electricity, etc) and propel the entire world into the Dark Ages. Nothing with a computer chip will work. They are used to it, we are not. The new mutual assured destruction will be done in cyberspace. We will all be third world countries and according to Russia, everyone will be even with them and have to start all over. That's where they will win.

Russia, China, Iran and North Korea will all strike at the same time, once we as democracies start to destroy ourselves from within. It will be a coordinated attack. I expect it before 2030, and so does our military and those who study Russia. All well documented and all too complex for most to understand or care about. The movie "Don't Look Up" is a great start. We LOVE easy answers and there are none.

So live well, enjoy your lives and people, and educate yourselves and your fellow Americans as to why we are so divided. Our weaknesses are being exploited by our enemies. We stay united, we win. They divide us, we fall.

"When Fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the American flag and carrying a Bible" ~Various~

Madeline

Yeah, nah, have you even ever been to eastern Europe? Ordinary Russians don't want this war and tons of them have been out protesting yesterday and today, even Russian A-list celebrities who normally toe the state line on all matters have spoken out. This invasion has really turned ordinary Russians massively against Putin, they think he's crazy. Ordinary Russians have no beef with Ukraine and vice versa.

Says it all really

As I'm not an expert on politics and geopolitics, or know Putin/his mindset etc, here are some ways to help the Ukrainian people:

https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/ways-to-help-ukraine-conflict/?fbclid=IwAR0V72nUdDSqQjinB8nep9sxDEWnIOiEDQ9wzxN0ETL7qGycDUrEtGvgoFE

Thank you for posting this link.

I like the idea that the west should isolate Russia from the global economy. But doing that would mean immediate energy shortages. How would we feel if the cost of electricity, gas, and petrol jumped again? The domestic energy "price cap" in the UK is already set to rise £700 a year this spring. What if it increased by the same amount again?

I can only imagine that many people could not tolerate this. We would certainly need a government that is genuinely committed to social justice and to protecting the majority. What we have instead is a government that denies the growing extent of poverty and instead protects the very rich, including very rich Russians who bring their fortunes to a safe haven here.

It's getting proper serious now. Russia's been kicked out of the Eurovision song contest. That'll teach em!

Sport is starting to catch up - Poland will refuse to play Russia in World Cup 2022 playoff in March, Uefa plans to move the Champions League final from St Petersburg, Putin's home town.

And F1 have cancelled the Russian Grand prix