Hey,

I think this coronavirus thing is going to be a disaster in the USA.

Here is my thesis for this not ending well:

US healthcare system works with insurance, and patients must pay per procedure. Right now they are charging people for the cost of the quarantine / isolation (https://nypost.com/2020/02/28/man-cleared-after-coronavirus-quarantine-cant-stop-coughing-in-tv-interview/ ), so if people don't have insurance that covers that and they go to hospital they could go bankrupt.

This will lead to uninsured / underinsured people to not go to hospital when they get mildly sick, which will mean that authorities won't be able to know where outbreaks are and contain them until someone gets really sick and goes to hospital, by which time a bunch of other people will have infected people.

Based on this, I've bet on the stock market to go down further in the next two weeks as a hedge against everything going to hell, but am seriously worried we're not well prepared for this. i have stocked up on hand sanitizer and bottled water, and am avoiding leaving my house.

It's going to become a pandemic, but most of the impact will probably be from people panicking about it rather than the actual disease. Chances are just about everyone is going to catch it but other than in certain vulnerable groups the death-rate isn't that high, you just basically get the flu.

They're predicing 500,000 deaths here in the UK, out of a population of approx 70 million.

And while everyone is panic buying masks, which are utterly pointless, the real problem is the number of people who don't cover their mouths when then cough or sneeze, and the number of people who don't wash their hands properly (or even at all) after going to the toilet.

I have the business news on all day, every day, and the real impact on the economy has nothing to do with deaths, but the very real global slowdown in economic growth. People aren't traveling, going out to eat, going to work, going to movies, malls, or anywhere there are people. Just 10% of people doing this worldwide can effect the global economy by twice that, especially when entire cities and companies are shutting down the world over. This has a long term domino effect and every pundit and CEO that comes on talks about the slowdown in productivity, manufacturing, GDP, imports and exports, you name it. Auto manufacturers, phone manufacturers, clothing manufacturers, no one is getting the parts they need to make their products. The virus will have a much longer effect on the economy than it will on deaths and infections... they will eventually fade but the economy will be effected for much longer.

As I wrote this, Apple, Nike, and Microsoft withdrew their guidance just because of the virus, and they are just the latest to do so. We are in for a serious short term market correction at best, and at worse, a long term recession and inflation, and the Fed already fired all their bullets. Personally, I kept only half my money in the market, and they are in only the strongest companies.

A 10% correction is damaging, a 20% downfall is a serious 2008 crash, and we are already at almost 10% in one week. No one expects growth over 3% this year and that is a stagnant economy at best. Add the long term virus effect to trade wars, tax breaks to billionaires, the Fed lowering rates on the whim of the White House down to almost zero, an already slow growth overseas and you have a recipe for a worldwide recession.

And after an unprecedented 11 year growth cycle, we are long overdue for a serious correction anyway. The virus effect just may be the catalyst to change what's coming from a correction to a recession. My bet is on recession by 3 or 4 QTR.

OK stop. Just stop this now.

My background: Degree in Microbiology and work with Doctors in the NHS who are updated daily.

DON'T PANIC

It is now been downgraded to less deadly than flu on a case by case basis. This will just turn into another bug that goes around each year like flu. Yes it can kill, but only those who are susceptible (Old, young, immunocompromised).

Also from my friends in China, they are pissing themselves laughing at us. The western media is making shit up and using stock footage of a pollution scare to show folks wearing masks...very few people in China are wearing masks, in fact they are less worried that us!

This is nothing to be scared about, "Pandemic" is not scary, "mutation" is not scary. This will just be another thing you have the option to get a vaccine for when they have made one.

Also, It was not made in a lab...seriously, the number of people I have had to tell this too is ridiculous. Please stop spreading fear and false information, the various media outlets do that enough already.

Worry more what the media are NOT reporting on when they blind-side you with fear-filled articles.

Today my bosses wife's business tested one of their system which sends automated messages to them. Their email system was down at the time. So, everyone received an automated text telling them to stay at home and asking them to confirm. Funnily enough, virtually no one went in to the offices as they hadn't seen the email telling them that the system was being tested... They'd work from home, but the system is down...

It's amusing in my industry that there are organisations with teams dedicated to contingency planning, yet they're asking us for our plan as they don't have one... (this has been going on for a few weeks and we're still getting requests, makes you wonder what some folk actually do considering how much they're paid...) The thing is, we've got so fed up of people being so complacent that we plan perfectly and do the right thing every time, that we put silly concepts into the plan - and they've swallowed it. I'll have to think up something even stupider for the next one we do...

The biggest concern is the human psyche - possible case near work, on train home feel cold symptoms developing. Oh no I must have the virus.

I will always be reminded of my psychology training of firefighter:

There is a small % of people that will walk towards the fire because they either their disbelief or curiosity overrides their fear response. They generally die first.

No matter how well you plan, the organic squishy bit at the heart will always screw something up.

Sometimes I understand Loki when he said his "Isn't this simpler" monologue.

This, THIS, MOTHERFUCKING THIS!!! Here's what the US media has reported on since the turn of the new year.

First half of January - WAR WITH IRAN!!! WE'RE AT WARRRR!!! OMG!!! FUCK, WWIII, WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!! Oh wait...they shot their own plane down...nevermind

Second half of January, first half of February - Impeachment!!!! Donald J Trumps Quid Quo Pro is the worst thing to happen since Watergate! Clearly his actions are the most deplorable thing to have happened in the history of the presidency of the united States of America.

Also, some shit slinging between Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren, how inadvertently gave Bloomberg A TON of publicity. But never mind real candidates with actual answers like Tulsi Gabbard. We don't want to hear about what's good for the country, just about "beating Trump" which is more important than the next news story...

Second half of February to now - THE coronavirus. Nevermind that coronaviruses (yes plural) are a TYPE of virus that cause respiratory tract infections and have existed since time began. This is THE coronavirus, the one that will end all life on the planet!!! Everyone is going to eventually get it and DIE!!! (sometime before the heat death of the universe)

The news is horseshit, plain and simple. True journalism is dead. Now we have pundits who tell you how you should feel about the information they feed you.

I trust Thunderf00t's number-crunching videos (generally):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEPi1KYanh4

Well, second to the CDC.gov website, I mean.

I read in my local newspaper that in the event of a massive outbreak in Australia the death toll will be around 96,000.


It's really causing me to stress out and I am worried for my family and friends; some of whom fob this off as just another flu.

If you follow me on twitter/IG you already know this but I came back from Venice a week ago and have had to self isolate as a precaution. Slowly going mad in my flat not being able to see my friends! Anyway, I'm really hoping that all these extra precautions mean it won't be as serious as feared - the only thing that risks that is the people who aren't taking it seriously and putting immunocompromised people around them in danger. Here's hoping 2 weeks of solitary isolation isn't all for nothing because I am going to be PISSED if I cancelled my birthday party, family visits, shooting and sessions and everyone fucking dies anyway lmao.

And universities here in South Korea are starting late this semester. Currently delayed from March 1 to March 16th and maybe even later, March 30th. Testing has been free, my paranoid ass has already gotten tested for shits and giggles (honestly, I had a small fever, cough, and a sore throat) and it came out negative. Not worried about dying but passing it along to friends and students who in turn pass to their elderly parents or whatnot. Generally I love thunderfoot but I have yet to see his video on it. Thanks for the recommendation.

Apparently, masturbation boosts the immune system.

So WAM may well have a role to play in keeping all of us healthy!

https://bigthink.com/sex-relationships/health-benefits-of-masturbation

Indeed. I'm more concerned about what the infotainment industry will hit us with in a couple of weeks when this gets old. Sooner or later a perfect storm of of headlines will say something like "OMG!!! WE ALL GONNA DIE!!!" Just to condense things. Details aren't required.

I suggest we all lock ourselves in our houses, whip out our credit cards, and enjoy some nice safe purchasing of fetish videos. Here's a good place to start

https://vidown.com

The good news is this should be a real boost to surgical mask WAM

https://twitter.com/Yamada93242638

Ok, this is equally as guilty of spreading the same nonsense you are accusing the media of.

I live in Hong Kong and we have been going through this for the last 6 weeks now. NOBODY has downgraded this to being less deadly than the flu, literally nobody. It is sitting at a mortality rate of 3.4% in current infections which is some 18 - 20 times that of the flu. It also, by provisional studies, spreads quicker and easier than the flu. The damage done to lungs and long-term health implications of this virus are still being discovered.

People in China are not 'pissing themselves laughing', most are still on lockdown or self-imposed social distancing. Everybody is wearing a mask (100% of people if you do go out). Where did you get this nugget of rubbish from? People are still very worried.

As far as the efficacy of wearing masks. Hong Kong has managed to completely squash the seasonal flu this year as a side effect of reduced social interactions, enhanced hygiene and every single person wearing a mask. There are definitely memories of SARs here and a different culture to western countries when it comes to wearing masks.

For the poster higher up who said masks were 'completely useless'. Well... I'd probably ask what peer reviewed studies you actually read? (or was it just media posts and sound bites from social media?). There have been several studies done and each found a reasonable efficacy to mask wearing with the problem always being that people did not wear their masks consistently. The main point though with masks is to stop YOU SPREADING IT to others, not for personal protection. SARS-CoV-2 is spread in liquid droplets from coughing, sneezing or talking. Early studies have shown some evidence of those not showing symptoms to be able to spread the virus. So by wearing a mask you are caring for the health of others by not spraying them in your fluids all day.

Of course:

People should not panic.
People should be critical of what they read.
People should not believe panic spreading media (particularly social media)
People should ignore the opinion bubble posts like the ones in this thread

But also people should take precautions by interacting less with others to avoid spreading and regularly washing hands with alcohol whenever touching anything outside your home. The chances of getting people in western countries to wear masks is very small, that element of this will make for an interesting epidemiological study after the virus subsides.

What if, the corona virus was actually a dormant zombie virus?
What if...

Dude not funny at all....

Why's that, because it's true?

You know, things will really start getting interesting once people start running out of toilet paper,
because that's what symbolically allows westerners to think they are more civilized than those in the developing world. Once folks can't wipe their asses, that's when the shit will really hit the fan,
if you'll excuse the pun.

Yeah I deal with people from China, Silver_sea is just making shit up.

This isn't necessarily something to PANIC over, but this isn't the flu. And I don't see any news organization going WERE ALL GOING TO DIE! But they ARE giving out information of what's going on, which is what you'd hope they'd be doing. If other people see it and flip out, what can you do. Some people think the earth is flat, some people are just stupid.

Completely agree. I think what I meant with being critical of the media is the social media side of things, there is some wild nonsense on there.

Potatoman, while I agree 100% the media is fucking with people as if we are a science experiment. True journalism is not dead. It is just hard to find. If it wasn't for the dedication of Julie K Brown and the others at the Miami Herald we would not have known a thing about Epstein. The connection to Lev Parnas and the Trump administration would also not be known.

The media in the US is acting like how they tell us the media in China is ran. They are under reporting the truth, or just down right lying about things to us. I know in my state there were people in quarantine because they came in contact with someone who tested positive and some in quarantine had tested positive about a week before announced in the news.

hey,

so I just had a new housemate move in, and he just flew in from Italy. So I am now personally on self isolation for 14 days

strange to think that this can actually effect me.

My self isolation ends Wednesday, message me if you need to chat to someone who knows what you're going through - I found it really hard being stuck indoors!

Legit concern. One of the major problem I have with the media is they aren't telling us the metrics of those who died. It's easy to think they are all old / immuno-compromised, but I did see a story tonight of a younger man who was saying he was otherwise healthy before he got it, and his lungs are filling up with fluid at a rather rapid rate.




I think this may be what they meant. Wearing a mask if you're healthy won't help you because you're not getting it by inhalation of air, you can get it from physical touch of the liquids etc. So really, one of the worst things (in america at least) is public bathrooms. Men's rooms in particular... I can't tell you how many people I see go in, piss all over the toilet seats and floor, leave without washing their hands, and getting their dick fingers all over the door handles. Now consider all the other public things they're going to touch...


I would be very interested in those numbers too.

Going over the relevant scientific literature it appears highly likely that the
COVID-19 virus is biphasic, meaning it
is a persistent infection much like herpes.

One of the original hosts of the virus are bats, and those that are infected with it carry it in their system indefinitely, acting as "reservoirs" for the virus. In the context of humans, it seems possible that those who catch it will have flair ups every time their immune system is under sufficient stress,
with each new bout causing cumulative damage to both their lungs and immune systems.
This would explain why a number of patients who have recovered from the virus, then tested positive for a second time, despite having no exposure to any other infected individuals.

I'm 4 days in ntoo my self isolation and massively bored. I'm literally eating things just to pass the time.

Soon, this is what our pets will be doing to us...

Also, STOP going to "the media" for information. Just go to the scientific organizations, straight to the sources, such as the CDC.gov. I know it's harder to yank out practical information about what to do from these more technical sites. But at least you know the information is accurate.

I was quoting my Chinese work college who has just come back from China...maybe he was making shit up.