Welp, I'm sure we've all seen this year's first debate between Biden and Trump, and the rulings by the United States Supreme Court.

How fucked does everyone feel about all of this? Will the US become a dictatorship? Will Biden use his new immunity to do anything drastic?

I know this is an international forum with members around the globe, so I'd like to hear as many opinions as possible.

If you're going to pop in to cry about politics being here, save it and move on.

All I know is that if the Democrats win than the world will at least stand up against China and Russia.

Should Trump or any other GOP get in Australia and every other free nation is screwed. Becasue American democracy won't exisit anymore. Who's to say Trump won't do a Putin.

Anyway Australia has it's own problems politically. Good luck US. you'll need it.

I've seen a rather amusing meme suggesting that now presidents have legal immunity, there's nothing to stop President Biden sending Seal Team Six to deal with Trump. Which would be poetic justice, but would probably soon be followed by actual civil war.

I don't feel a lot more fucked today than I did, say, three months ago. But I've been trying to look at long historical trends, and the past week or two hasn't shifted the long trends, in my opinion. It might have shown those trends more clearly, but I don't think they're any different than they have been.

Anyway, to get the easy stuff out of the way first, Biden's not going to start committing crimes. Nor should he, in my opinion. What he should do is add some more people to the Supreme Court. But he's not going to do that, either, just like he didn't push to abolish the electoral college or kill the filibuster or do anything else to make the rules more sane. The most we can hope for from him is to give us another four years to solidify our message, focus our plans, and find someone who is willing to make structural changes.

Whether or not we're going to get those four extra years, I don't know. Maybe. I've stopped trying to predict presidential elections. Anyway, I'm also not sure how much those extra for years would change the shape of things in the long run. As far as I can tell from my limited American perspective, the scales have already tipped in favor of a new world order and also that new world order is already collapsing. Just go down the list of Allied nations to see how much the status quo has changed. Of the big four, the US and the UK have both been mired in plutocracy for the past 40+ years, while Russia and China are autocracies with dreams of empire. The centrists in France seem to be heading towards a cliff. After eight years of being a subsidiary of the IMF, Greece is sliding to the right. India and Brazil have been experimenting with the idea of dictatorial nationalism. None of that is obviously within our power to change, and none of it is sustainable. So even if we in the US get everything right in the near term, I'm not sure how much that's going to matter in the long term. Sooner or later, capitalism is going to lose all credibility and we're going to have to radically reshape civilization. Sooner or later, global warming is going to swamp every other concern and we're going to have to radically reshape civilization again. No matter whether everything goes right or wrong in the next, say, ten years of US elections, those changes are coming.

I noticed historical trends, too. In 2008. In 2008, it was saying that the republican nominee was going to win in 2016, and he did. They could have nominated a ham sandwich and Clinton would have lost. I was telling everyone who would listen and some people who wouldn't. The morning after I stormed out of my room and yelled "I'm tired of being right!". My roommate yelled back "I'm tired of you being right, too!"

Now, according to the standard theory, he should have won 2020, but the same thing happened that made Carter a 1 term president - recession starting in his first term right before the election.

So, what do my tea leaves say for this one? They're just looking at me like I'm stupid.

We haven't had a second term non-consecutive run since Teddy Roosevelt, and not a successful one since Grover Cleaveland. That's outside the data sample that goes back to 1948. I guess I'll try some other method of forecasting.

Does anyone have a goat they aren't particularly fond of? (joke)

I am just sick of all the bullshit. All the people in the GOP that talked shit about Trump have now bellied up to the trough to kiss his ass. While I do not always agree with Republicans just like I don't always agree with Democrats, I had that hope that they would see the conman for what he is. It does not help that the fucking Democrats keep losing everything they throw at him.

I don't think Biden will do anything because the Democrats are filled with a bunch of chicken shits. That's why Republicans get away with everything they do. Democrats won't do shit about accountability. Republicans ignored congressional subpoena's. MTG displayed revenge porn pictures of the president's son in congress. There are laws against that. I still have no clue what point she was trying to make with that. But like everything else, no penalties. We have supreme court justices who have accepted bribes for favorable rulings. No consequences.

But this is the situation we got ourselves in. This hasn't been a recent thing either, this has been some serious long game testing what they can get away with. Bush has yet to stand trial for purgery when he lied to congress about Iraq. While there were other smaller tests before that, I see that as a larger test to see what they could get away with. Then slowly pushing the bar further. Is there some blame for Clinton and the DNC for what they pulled with Bernie, absolutely. But there is also blame to the voters that refused to vote because they were pissed about what happened. Is our two party system flawed, absolutely! This idea of fear that if other candidates exist they are taking votes away from another party and their opponent would lose needs to stop. There is not any reason we cannot have a serious third or fourth party candidate. Another Ross Perot. If the candidates selected by the parties was a strong enough candidate, they would not need to fear a third party opponent. But the problem is they aren't. I don't think I have ever voted in an election where I was not voting the lesser of two evils.

I would love to get away from the electoral college. While it is a crime for an elector to submit a vote against the popular vote of that state, it is not really all that serious of a crime and does not have any real consequences. Why do you think there was an attempt at fake electors? It was almost 4 years ago and they are just now having the trials for some of those electors. If the fake electors had been successful we would not have anything done in time to fix the results of the President being sworn in.

At the end of the day, we are choosing between two people who are arguably not fit for office. It is no better than a giant douche and a turd sandwich.

I was interested to see Biden's speech with Elton John at the opening of the Stonewall Inn national monument center last weekend. He came across as the perfect president with a real down to earth connection with the activist pair who got the place built.

But that's the trouble - I really don't think he should be standing - he's just too damn doddery - let alone for a further 4 years - I can't see how he'll beat Trump now but the sort of performance he gave at Christopher Street will make his team think he's fine until it's all too late. I am absolutely dreading a trump presidency. He just gives me the total creeps plain and simple. It's quite a phenomenon how so many want such an obviously and undeniably creepy creep!

I don't think enough people know about Project 2025 and what it would mean for us if Trump's miserable ass gets back in office.
I'm not going to post the entire thing, but I have included this handy chart with specific page references to some very troubling issues and plans.

You can google the document and see for yourself.

I certainly saw that, and it gives credence to those commentators who go as far as saying this might be the last time the USA has free and fair elections.

It could really be that bad (so far Trump certainly scored with the Supreme Court appointees) but it also depends on whether he is again such an incompetent tactician and can't build a strong enough elite team around him to make it all work out. Here's hoping, but as last time, the chaos and non-stop bullshitery is just so exhausting, and innocent lives get ruined in the process.

Well, I live in good old UK...

Just started my Vault-tec build in the garden :

You missed a HUGE one that will impact this forum.
https://www.freespeechcoalition.com/blog/how-project-2025-threatens-the-rights-of-sex-workers-and-the-lgbtq-community

Thanks. I appreciate spreading information about their attempts to bring about a christian fascist nation.

I live very close to Washington DC and luckily Maryland is a very firm Blue State in which I am a registered Democrat and Democrats outnumber Republicans in my state 2 to 1. I'm just tired of hearing what 45 has to say out of his mouth cause he is now a convicted felon and that should disqualify him from the Presidency in itself. If it was a perfect world, tRump would be in Federal Prison and MTG will be expelled from Congress cause she is so far up trump's ass she don't see reality and furthermore, MTG helped plan the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol Building which 45 incited the riot. Also, on the Supreme Court, Alito and Clarence Thomas need to be removed from the bench and the Dobbins case that overturned Roe vs Wade be rescinded and Roe be reinstalled as law and I am Pro-Choice. I'm voting to re-elect President Biden cause I don't want a repeat of 2016 and even though he may have his missteps, he is the better option than a convicted felon and if you are a certain age, in 1986, 45 ruined Spring Football by trying to get the United States Football League, which carved out a niche in the Spring from 1983-85, tried to convert it to a Fall league to compete directly against or force a merger with the NFL and only got $1 in a $1 Billion lawsuit against the NFL. Trump is bad for our country and I hope the day after Election Day in November, I hope reality sets in for those that kiss his ass including the fake-me-out "Patriots" who in reality are racist and hide behind our flag for that reason. They are not Patriots, they should be in Court charged with treason and trying to stop a certification of the election and attempt to overthrow the Federal Government and accept the results as they are

And after today's shooting, things are about to get so much worse.

I'm high anxiety, so I don't know what's a reasonable worry and what's just a panic response.

Is it reasonable to be afraid of a "retaliatory" attack? I have retaliatory in quotes because while there's no evidence anyone from the opposition had anything to do with it, facts have never stood in the way of a good blame game. So I'm worried someone already close to the edge going over because of all the disinformation out there.

Hell, neither side is particularly immune. I see people posting stuff claiming it was a hoax with the same flimsy references they'd laugh at if the other side posted it - screencaps of some undisclosed 'news' site with headlines that support the preconceived notion. Really, they should know better. I don't get my news from TikTok, I don't get my news from facebook jpegs.

Conspiracies already abound from the far right, and some on the left, about the shooter being sent by Biden to stop trump.
Retaliation by some lunatic seems likely after years of trump and the alt-right fanning the flames of violence at every opportunity, and making it easy for the mentally ill to get assault weapons. Literal nazis march in the streets with no push back from the police here, and others openly speak about wanting another civil war.

I'd say any anxiety you're currently feeling is justified and reasonable.

I know my fair share of conservative people and the stuff I saw on social media on Saturday ranged from just that one picture of Trump with his first in the air over and over again, to this one dude I went to high school with (very redneck high school) who for some reason felt the need to caption it "fuckin libtards cant even fuckin aim correctly" and for some reason I don't think I'll see anything after it was revealed that the shooter had some sort of "Epstein" mission and was a conservative himself.

I'm kind of in the "pistols and rifles are okay for hunting with intensive background checks yada yada" camp but the one person I've known of who had literal assault rifles also had some serious mental baggage and the night he dumped my girlfriend's sister claimed that he could shoot his dog and feel nothing after.

I'm very left leaning but dammit if I don't consider getting a basic pistol for protection purposes every so often.

I'm very left leaning myself, and pro gun control, but yeah, I feel ya in regards to owning a weapon for self and home defense, especially with how batshit some of the cult are.
I personally have two handguns, and have been thinking about expanding for the added peace of mind.

There are websites that will list every registered voter's name, political party, and home address. With some people making threats of going to democrat's homes and making them pay, I am on a higher alert.

MHO P2025 doesn't drastically differentiate from previous updated Mandate for Leadership versions that have come out at every election since 1980. It's packaged to reflect the current social/political climate but over similar agenda-driven components that have seen revisions in response to civil protection policy that threaten extremist control.

Nothing new in retrospect. However, concern has grown with P2025s newly increased potential due to a few factors:

-The actual organizational support it has within the GOP's presumed cabinet.

-The recent immunity ruling by a stacked-in-its-favor SCOTUS, discarding checks and balances for open-ended authoritative legislation.

-Divisive social issues have such gravitas that we've reached a bit of an impasse when it comes to being an effective/productive unit.

-The unrest with some demanding the current POTUS step aside after a 'less than stellar' debate performance.

-The assassination attempt allowing the GOP to further capitalize on a martyrdom/victimization narrative.

For me, this makes Project2025 about as frightening as the thought of a Gilead realized.

A GOP win is looking more and more possible and presumably the evangelicals/christian nationalists would have the most populous voice within the party once again. The rest will sustain the cult level hard on for its leader whether they want to or not.

That said, P2025 acts as a lucrative fundraising tool for the Democratic & Republican party as It scares the masses into donating more money to the Dems and it gets ultra-right conservatives hype to think the GOP will carry this out. In the end, the corporations win.
$0.02

If someone was afraid of losing part of their political base, an assassination attempt would provide a great motivator. They claim the gun was an AR-15. If he had an AR-15, that whole would be a lot bigger. He also would not be playing golf the next day. The media would not have been moved away from center. The secret service would have acted on the reports from people watching the shooter get situated. Sure I like me a good conspiracy, but damn.

Do you mean, is it unreasonable to expect that someone will try to, for example, kill Biden? I don't think that's an unreasonable expectation. I doubt anyone will succeed, and strangely I'm not sure how much large-scale harm it would do if anyone did succeed, but it doesn't seem unreasonable to think that someone might try.

Or do you mean, do you have a good reason to feel fear over the prospect that someone might, say, try to kill Biden? If that's what you mean, then it's complicated. I'd be more interested in asking what you're going to do about your fear. Same goes for Barry:


On the one hand, people who own a gun are statistically more likely to be killed by another person, not less, so there's certainly a case to be made that this is not rational. On the other hand, I understand the impulse to do *something* to feel safer.

Actually, I wonder if a lot of the people in this thread don't know what to do to feel safer. And if that's true for you (whoever you are), I wonder what you've tried so far.

I really like this question about what are you doing to feel safe. I mind my business and get in and get out. That is something that has served me well. I have had co-workers stare at me because I go places that they don't think a typical middle age white guy would feel safe going. For example, I LOVE Church's chicken. The only place you can find Church's in some states is in the hood. I was talking with my boss about a decade ago about how much I liked Church's and went and got it. His reaction was, wait you go to Church's and buy your chicken and leave.... No one has ever messed with you, robbed you, jumped you etc. I said no. I go in I don't look people in the eye, I am nice to the people in the Church's say hi to people that talk to me and get my food and head out. At first I did get some looks from the workers at the Church's, but then they got used to me coming in and were more friendly.

I am absolutely aware of the boiling kettle that we have right now in our country. I wasn't sure that it could get worse 6 years ago, but I was wrong. One of the things that has always made me feel ok going places I probably shouldn't, taking the advice not to go some places and just living my life is that your average American when put in a situation where they would be all huffy with words, when it comes to actions are all bark. There are a lot of people that think they could pull the trigger and shoot another human, but when they get in the moment, would be so scared they would more than likely miss. I am not so naive to not acknowledge we have that portion of society that will absolutely shoot you or more or worse for whatever reason they deem appropriate. But when you do the math, that might be 20% of the population and I think that is more generous than not. Get away from the rhetoric and all the political gas lighting and look at your average person. Most people are working pay check to pay check struggling to keep their family taken care of and pay the bills. They have all this anger and bullshit online, but when it comes time to gather and actually do stupid stuff, they back down. How many of the people that showed up to the rally/protest on January 6th actually went into the buildings and stormed the place? Of that number how many of the people were violent and destructive? It is a pretty small number. Most of the people that went in the building and were charged were there taking selfies and saying look at me, I belong here, I am a follower, see I am here too. Looking for the approval of whatever entity they have value in. Or sucked up in the fantasy of being able to say I was there at this great moment in history. I was there when they prevented congress from certifying the election. Thinking things would turn out their way. Something that they could hold against people they looked up to as a badge of honor or some form of acceptance or envy. You have people who are more poor than some of their acquaintances and people that don't care about them, but they think they are good friends. They use things like January 6th to try to get that feeling of envy from the people that could not give a fuck about them, for just a brief moment. That strong sense of belonging to people who really are not that great to begin with. I think when you break things down like that it can paint a different picture when it comes to safety.

Yet another twist in this maddening shitshow. Biden has officially dropped out of the presidential race. We are likely getting a Kamala Harris ticket, with an as of now unknown VP pick.

She wouldn't be my first choice as a candidate, and I wish we could get a vote in who we would like to represent us from the party, but I understand that it is too late to run a primary, and she can have access to the already collected campaign funds.

This is going to be a wild few months.

I am afraid to wonder what is next. I have all kinds of opinions about this. I think that it is about a year late to be doing this shit. Talk about a confusing message. Bad performance at the debate, then a family meeting and he decides he is all in, then the meeting with the governors talking about being all in. Trump has an assassination attempt and the next damn weekend Biden backs out. I don't care about the people calling for him to step down. Way to send the message that Trump won the first debate and that Democrats have little faith in their candidate. I don't think Biden wanted to step down but here we are.

While it might be a crazy notion, I would like to see Kamala choose a moderate conservative as her VP. Maybe someone like Mitt Romney. Yes I hate him, yes I think he is a shitty business person because of the way he made his money, buying companies taking out loans against the company, running away with the money forcing the companies into bankruptcy. ALL of that aside, I think that enough Republicans hate Trump and like him, that rather than voting for the Independent, they would vote for a partial Republican ticket over Trump.

I've seen this sentiment a lot but I'm confused (live in the UK so forgive my ignorance), as I thought the whole point of a running mate was to take the reigns if the president goes. I also thought that the whole point of having a running mate run with the president, is a sort of semi endorsement of "vote for me and also vote that my partner is the best candidate to take over". Is this not the case?

For the record I know very little about Harris or the other potentials but part of me thinks it would be fitting to have trump defeated by a young black woman.

As a viewer from afar (UK)..... SURELY Trump has this in the bag?

Whatever the outcome, the world is going to be a far more upset, violent, turbulent affair from these days forward.

Something is coming. Maybe not this year or next.... but something world changing will happen.

I have said for the last 20 years that a pandemic was coming (whether deliberate or by accident). Another one of those is almost certainly on the horizon.

Some angry, blind, religion or greed driven nutcase will be the end of mankind. For sure

Yes, the Vice-President is there to cast a tie-breaking vote in the senate and is first in line of presidential succession. However, they are not the automatic nominee should an acting president step down from the campaign.


Romney is weak and a thief. Harris already has an uphill battle in a country that already lost its collective mind when a man that was half-black got elected president without adding a religious fundamentalist to her ticket.
I would see Gavin Newsom as a strong choice, or even Gretchen Whitmer.

By now I'm pretty sure we should all learn to back off of "surely" when it comes to US politics. Our polls are no longer reliable, our news media is living in its own private version of The West Wing, and our voters are even less consistent than the polls and the media.

I mean, look, the downside of our two-party system is that we rarely get the best people for the job. The upside is that, in situations like this, even though everything has been absolutely nuts you have to still give Harris something in the neighborhood of a 50/50 shot--and that's before she begins campaigning. At the rate things have been going, for all we know she could be the runaway favorite by November.

From a UK perspective, I'm hoping the entire Democrat party unites behind Harris, she picks a nice "balancing" swing-state senator or governor as her running mate, and they all just go flat out hell for leather to win in November.

But after that November morning in 2016 when I woke up to find Trump was about to win the election (and did, about an hour later), not taking anything for granted.

I remember watching interviews on tv when some were saying they couldn't vote for Hillary Clinton because she was a woman!

I hope that kind of thing doesn't happen again